MICHELLE GRATTAN April 17, 2012
Simon Watch speaks from Afghanistan via Skype with his family in Brisbane, wife Caetlin Watch and their daughters, Emily, 3, and Hannah, 22 months, who touches the screen. Photo: Harrison Saragossi
Australia's timetable for withdrawing troops from Afghanistan has one central driver — the progressive drawdown of most American troops. Julia Gillard is — inevitably — piggybacked on Barack Obama's policy, which is dictated in part by his political situation.
The president, facing an election this year, has had a compelling need for an exit strategy — although the details, including the final American presence, are still to be revealed — and Australia's arrangements follow from this.
It was always going to be so. Australia is in Afghanistan to support our ally and the international effort. To give the impression that we are independent decision-makers is misleading.
Sources have told The National Times that Julia Gillard's latest timeline actually reflects what has been an existing position rather than a shift to an accelerated Australian departure. Gillard has crystallised what came from the 2010 Lisbon conference on Afghanistan.
The transition in Oruzgan province, where Australia mostly operates, is due to begin mid year, and be completed in 12 to 18 months. It's not clear how many Australian troops would be still there in the last months of 2013, because it takes a while to get out and there would be an "extraction" force required as the withdrawal happened (essentially to clean things up). Even after the bulk of the Australian force goes, some troops will remain, most notably special forces.
While it will be useful to have troops either on the way home or about to be at next year's election, it's not an electoral imperative. The war is unpopular here, but it has had Tony Abbott's support. If anything, he's been more gung ho than Gillard — the opposition is now warning about the danger of an early retreat.
The issue is not a vote changer between Labor and the Coalition. It is possible that, if the switch in Greens leadership is likely to help Labor (as many observers predict), the government's getting the troops home could add to those "pull" factors.
Gillard is emphasising what Australia will do in the way of assistance after most of our forces leave. Defence Minister Stephen Smith is sending an optimistic message that the Taliban won't regain control when the international contingent hands over security responsibility to the locals.
We'll hear a lot more reassuring talk about long term help and bright vistas. We, and the Americans, need a narrative to say that, after the effort, expense and loss of life, it's going to be all right when we go. The real story, however, is that following more than a decade the international community and particularly the US have had enough of what many regard as this unwinnable war.